"Since the S&P index was first computed on a daily basis in 1928 there have so far been eleven occasions when it lost 13.9 percent or more of its value after climbing to a new historic high. After the S&P index finally recovered from these major bear markets and achieved at least one more new historic high there have always been at least three minor declines or corrections of from three to 10.6 percent (followed by a recovery to yet another new historic high) before the stock market entered a more pronounced bear market of greater severity. See column (4) of Table 20.1.

Five of the eleven bull markets with new historic highs for the S&P index in the post World War II period ended on the fourth decline of three percent or more and two bull markets on the fifth decline. In 1996 the US stock market finally broke the 1985-87 bull market record of 12 minor peak to trough declines of from three to 9.4 percent before a major crash. The worst decline during the longer lasting bull market of 1991-97 has so far only amounted 8.9 percent from February 2, 1994 to April 11 of the same year.

The most impressive aspect to the bull market of 1991-9? is its subdued character prior to the record setting peak to peak gain of 29 percent during 1995. The bubble which peaked out on February 2, 1994 established a new all time first peak to last peak trading day duration record of 116 days but only increased a modest 5.63 percent above the preceding new high bubble peak which occurred on March 10, 1993.

On December 13, 1995 this record was broken with a series of 77 new historic highs for the S&P composite spread over a 210 day trading period without a correction of three percent or more. The 29 percent peak-to-peak gain associated with this bubble was more than ten percentage points higher than"  »»» Click Here For More